An Interesting Perspective
By Chris Crock, MBA, PFP

The Fourth of July is always an exciting time of year for me and my family. We load up the car and head up to the lake. It is a time to celebrate our freedom, family and friendships. Taking for granted the freedoms that we have here in the United States is easy to do. Our rights to property ownership are part of the foundation that makes this country so great. These rights should be cherished and protected at all cost. We also have a free and open market economy that has allowed our country to become the wealthiest in the world. As we all know, the market is subject to change and we have seen some pretty drastic changes in the past month with interest rates.

We have seen a .625% increase in fixed rates in the past month. As of June 11th, the par 30 year fixed conforming rate was 6.500% with 1% origination. This is up from 5.875% for the same loan on May 9th. The rapid rise in interest rates has been caused by the Federal Reserve’s fears of rising inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve attempts to manage inflation by adjusting the Federal Funds Target Rate up or down which in turn causes the Prime Rate to go up or down. What all of this means to you and me is that when the Federal Reserve is nervous about rising inflation, we see mortgage interest rates rise. When there are signs of low inflation, mortgage interest rates have a tendency to move lower.

In the past month interest rates have reached their high point for the past year. While this isn’t great news for someone locking in their interest rate, it is important to keep a historical perspective on rates. The 30 year fixed chart makes this point very clear.

Since April 1971, the 30 year conventional fixed rate mortgage did not drop below 6.500% until July 2002. In that timeframe, the 30-year fixed rate has only been lower 12.4% of the time. The mean average rate over this period has been 9.24%. This makes 6.500% seem like a steal. The difference in an amortized payment on a $200,000 loan with a 9.24% rate and a 6.500% rate is $379.44. Therefore, our payments are historically $379.44 better than average over the past 36 years for this size loan. For every .125% increase in rate that is seen on a $200,000 loan, the amortized monthly payment increases only by around $16.40.

If you are in the process of buying a home, the quick rise in interest rates could create a little indigestion. Hopefully, a little historical perspective will help ease the pain. I always try to focus on the things that I can control. Since I am not the Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve, I do not have the ability to lower interest rates. If I were buying a home, I would have control over doing my research on buying the right house that has good potential to be a great investment. It is important to spend your focus on buying the right property that fits for your lifestyle and financial situation. Choosing a Realtor® that is an expert in the market where you are purchasing is a critical part of the process. Do not fret over the things that you cannot control. By choosing the right home to buy, you can make a great investment in any market.

Our Local Housing Market Scoreboard

One of the primary questions that I am asked these days is, “How is the housing market?” We all have heard the media blurbs about a housing bubble, falling housing prices, and construction slowdown. Unfortunately, the media has a way of implanting these beliefs in our psyche. For the most part, these reports are about national statistics that have little or no impact on our local market.

Housing markets vary from city to city, zip code to zip code, and even neighborhood to neighborhood. When looking to purchase or sell your home, it is important to keep in mind the fundamentals that are driving your local market.

The Local Housing Market Scoreboard is designed as a snapshot of economic indicators that are driving our market here in western Gwinnett County. It will become a regular addition to the Real Estate section of Inside Gwinnett.

Supply

Quite often statistics are used to try to convince someone of whatever point they are trying to prove. In this case, these statistics when viewed together can help clarify the current housing market in our local area. The economic fundamentals of supply and demand determine the relative house values for an area. The scoreboard measures the supply side of the equation by looking at the number of homes listed for sale in western Gwinnett County. This number has seen a whopping 78.54% increase since the same time last year. A greater supply without an increase in demand would have a negative impact on the market and home values.

Demand

The demand for homes can be analyzed by looking at the average time that a home is on the market before it sells and the changes in employed potential homeowners entering the market. With Atlanta reaching the 5 millionth resident recently combined with a low unemployment rate of 4.0%, the demand for housing is strong. The average time that it has taken a home to sell has increased by 17 days since the same time last year. This would make one think that homeowners in the area would be willing to reduce their sales price to speed up the sales process. However, the average sales price in western Gwinnett has increased by 9.63% since last year. This could mean that the number of higher priced homes are selling at a greater rate than last year. Most likely the increase is due to a combination of some inflation and more activity with higher priced homes selling this year compared to last year.

Interest Rates

The most common loan program these days is still the 30 year fixed rate amortizing loan. Fewer people have been choosing to lock in an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) in the past year. This is due to there being very little rate advantage in choosing an ARM versus a fixed rate. The 30 year fixed rate has seen a slight improvement in the past month with the par rate falling below 6%. Historically, this is a very good time to borrow money for financing a home. The low rates will allow first time homebuyers to afford a home sooner than they would have if interest rates were not so low.

The Scoreboard only lists a handful of economic indicators to keep things simple. I will reference it from time to time as there are important shifts in the market. It is important to contact a local Realtor® who is an expert in the area where you are buying or selling a home. A professional Realtor® is going to be your best resource in determining what factors are impacting a home’s value.

Chris Crock lives in Peachtree Corners and is a mortgage professional affiliated with F&D Advisors, LLC, a wealth management firm in Atlanta, GA. Crock is the current President of the River Station Community Association. He has an MBA in Personal Financial Planning from Georgia State University. Send Chris your feedback at chris.crock@fdadvisors.com or 404-253-7652.